Total Renewables · DE/LU

Renewable generation in the German electricity system

Renewables are the dominant source of electricity in Germany. Wind and solar make up the bulk of renewable output and drive its variability, complemented by comparatively stable contributions from biomass, run-of-river hydro, and smaller technologies. Over the course of a year, renewables cover more than half of German electricity consumption, and in favorable weather situations combined renewable feed-in can approach or exceed total national demand.

The renewable fleet is spread across the entire country, but with a clear pattern: wind capacity is concentrated in the north and east, solar capacity in the south and east, and offshore wind connects in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Integrating this feed-in is the responsibility of the four German transmission system operators 50Hertz, TenneT, Amprion, and TransnetBW.

Official data on German renewable feed-in is published by the TSOs on the joint platform Netztransparenz, by the Bundesnetzagentur on SMARD, and on the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. The complete registry of German generation units is maintained in the Marktstammdatenregister.

Why total renewable forecasts for DE/LU are important

Total renewable feed-in is part of the equation when calculating residual load, which is the demand that remains to be covered by conventional plants, storage, and imports. Residual load, in turn, is a key fundamental behind German power prices: when renewables are high, prices fall and turn negative; when renewables are low, expensive plants set the price. A forecast of total renewable generation is therefore a direct route to a view on system tightness and price direction.

Working with one aggregated renewable forecast also has practical advantages over combining separate wind and solar forecasts from different sources. Errors in individual technologies partly offset each other, forecast vintages are consistent by construction, and the signal maps directly onto the quantity traders actually care about. Portfolio managers, analysts, and risk teams use total renewable forecasts to anticipate oversupplied or tight system situations, position storage and flexibility ahead of ramps, and stress-test exposure to renewable-driven price regimes.

Telescope Energy provides aggregated forecasts of total renewable generation for the DE/LU bidding zone for these use cases.

How our forecast works

Telescope Energy operates a collaborative forecasting platform. Our proprietary ensemble engine combines models developed by our research team with forecasts from independent expert forecasters. Each contributing model is continuously evaluated against realized feed-in, and the ensemble weights individual signals by their recent performance. The combined signal is designed to use complementary model strengths and reduce dependence on any single model.

The underlying models process high-resolution numerical weather predictions from multiple weather providers and capture the distinct dynamics of each renewable technology as well as their interaction at the system level. Forecasts are updated frequently as new weather model runs become available, so recent wind, irradiance, and temperature information can be reflected in each update. Forecasts are delivered through the Telescope API for integration into existing trading and analysis workflows.

What drives total German renewable generation?

The profile of total renewable feed-in is shaped by the interplay of wind and solar. Solar contributes a predictable midday peak whose height depends on cloud cover and season, while wind contributes a volatile baseline that can swing from near zero to close to full capacity within a day. The two are partly complementary: sunny high-pressure situations often come with weak wind, while stormy winter days deliver strong wind without much solar. The hardest situations to forecast are the transitions, when fronts move cloud fields and wind ramps across the country simultaneously.

Biomass and run-of-river hydro add a comparatively steady base, with hydro varying by precipitation and snowmelt over weeks rather than hours. On top of the meteorology, structural factors matter: installed capacity grows continuously across technologies, so identical weather produces more feed-in every year, and curtailment due to grid congestion or negative prices can push realized generation below the meteorologically possible level. Extreme situations at both ends, dark doldrums with minimal wind and solar as well as oversupply periods with renewable feed-in near total demand, have an outsized impact on prices and system operation.

Capturing multiple weather-driven technologies, their interactions, and slow structural drift in one consistent signal is what an ensemble of diverse, continuously benchmarked models is designed to do.

Forecast accuracy

Accuracy claims are easy to make and hard to verify, which is why Telescope Energy is built around transparency. We publish historical forecasts alongside realized renewable feed-in, free of charge, so that every prospective customer can benchmark our DE/LU renewable generation forecast against their current provider or internal models before committing to anything.

Our ensemble approach is designed for consistent accuracy across weather regimes, including the situations where forecasts matter most: dark doldrums, oversupply periods, and fast transitions between wind and solar dominated feed-in. Because the ensemble reweights contributing models based on ongoing performance, the forecast automatically keeps pace with the expansion of the German renewable fleet, without depending on any single model remaining state of the art.

Frequently asked questions

What does this forecast include?

The product provides quarter-hourly P10, P50, and P90 forecasts for total renewable generation in MW from D+0 through D+7.

How often is the forecast updated?

The forecast runs in rolling mode so new wind, irradiance, temperature, and system information can be incorporated throughout the day.

How is the forecast delivered?

Forecasts are delivered through the Telescope API for integration into trading, nomination, analytics, and asset-optimization workflows. Request a pilot to evaluate the product with your own benchmark and use case.