Day-Ahead Price · AT

What is the Austrian day-ahead market?

The Austrian day-ahead market covers the AT bidding zone and is a core price reference for the Austrian electricity system. Prices are determined in a daily auction: market participants submit buy and sell orders for delivery periods of the following day, and a uniform clearing price is calculated for each delivery period.

The auction is operated by nominated electricity market operators, most prominently EPEX SPOT, and is coupled with neighboring European markets through the Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC). Austrian prices are therefore shaped by domestic fundamentals as well as supply, demand, and transmission capacity across connected bidding zones, including the close link to the German market. EXAA also operates a day-ahead auction relevant for Austrian market participants earlier in the day.

Official market data for the Austrian bidding zone is published on the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.

Why AT day-ahead price forecasts are important

The day-ahead auction is a binding, one-shot clearing. Orders must be submitted before gate closure, and once the auction clears, positions are firm. That makes the quality of the price forecast a direct input into trading P&L.

Accurate Austrian day-ahead forecasts matter across market roles. Hydropower operators and marketers use them to decide how much flexibility to commit in the auction versus later markets. Battery storage and pumped storage operators use them to schedule cycles across the highest daily spreads. Industrial consumers and utilities use them to optimize procurement. Asset optimizers allocate capacity between day-ahead, intraday, and balancing markets based on the expected price path.

Austria’s hydro-heavy generation mix, alpine run-of-river dynamics, and strong coupling to neighboring markets create distinctive price regimes, including sharp ramps and spillover from German renewable swings. Telescope Energy provides probabilistic day-ahead price forecasts for the Austrian market with these drivers in view.

How our forecast works

Telescope Energy operates a collaborative forecasting platform. Our proprietary ensemble engine combines models developed by our research team with forecasts from independent expert forecasters. Each contributing model is continuously evaluated against realized market outcomes, and the ensemble weights individual signals by their recent performance. The combined signal is designed to use complementary model strengths and reduce dependence on any single model.

Forecasts for the AT day-ahead price can be updated until gate closure as new weather, hydro, load, and market information becomes available. The product covers delivery through D+7 and is delivered through the Telescope API for integration into existing trading workflows.

What drives Austrian day-ahead prices?

Austrian day-ahead prices reflect the interaction of hydro conditions, demand, thermal and renewable supply, and cross-border coupling. Reservoir and pumped storage flexibility can shift energy across hours, while run-of-river generation depends on precipitation and snowmelt. Temperature-driven load, industrial activity, and the calendar shape daily and seasonal demand.

Import and export capacity with neighboring zones, especially Germany, transmits renewable-driven price swings into Austria when interconnectors are unconstrained. Fuel and carbon prices set the cost of the marginal thermal plant when hydro and imports are insufficient. Outages, hydrological extremes, and transmission constraints can rapidly change the local supply stack.

A reliable forecast has to capture these domestic and coupled drivers simultaneously and adapt as their relative importance shifts. This is precisely what an ensemble of diverse, continuously benchmarked models is designed to do.

How to evaluate forecast quality

Forecast quality should be assessed against a defined benchmark over a representative evaluation window. The public preview lets prospective customers inspect released forecast values, while a pilot provides the appropriate setting to compare Telescope with a current provider or internal model.

For this product, an evaluation should include hydro-driven shape changes, cross-border price spillovers, extreme spreads, weekends, and holidays. Relevant measures include MAE and RMSE for the median forecast, pinball loss for quantiles, and performance during hydro- and congestion-driven regimes. Results should be reported together with the benchmark, delivery horizon, data vintage, and evaluation period so that the comparison remains reproducible.

Frequently asked questions

What does this forecast include?

The product provides quarter-hourly P10, P50, and P90 price forecasts in EUR/MWh for delivery from D+1 through D+7.

How often is the forecast updated?

Forecasts can be updated until the day-ahead gate closure as new hydro, weather, load, and market information becomes available.

How is the forecast delivered?

Forecasts are delivered through the Telescope API for integration into trading, nomination, analytics, and asset-optimization workflows. Request a pilot to evaluate the product with your own benchmark and use case.